The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its partners, such as Russia, collectively termed Opec+, have decided to cut crude oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from October onwards, at a meeting on Monday. In a step that may increase prices in India, the group has decided to reduce output quotas for October, after a fall in global oil demand outlook. The cut in output is equal to 0.1 per cent of global supply.
The ministry of petroleum and natural gas on Friday reiterated that India has sufficient stock of crude oil, petrol and diesel, while ensuring an uninterrupted supply of LNG and LPG despite disruptions caused by the ongoing West Asia conflict.
The Iran conflict led to a sharp correction in Reliance Industries Ltd's (RIL's) share price, which has been partially reversed by a rebound.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict and its impact on energy supplies with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and EU's Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Rising geopolitical uncertainty, a falling dollar and the growing speculative interest in commodities trading will keep crude prices volatile.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
The rupee declined 31 paise to settle at 90.65 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties over the US-Iran talks, and a sharp rise in global crude oil prices.
Some are treating the price correction as akin to a fiscal stimulus that could kick-start a new demand cycle in the economy.
The government has cut windfall profit tax on export of diesel and ATF to their lowest while also reducing the levy on domestically-produced crude in line with softening international oil prices, according to an official order. The levy on crude oil produced by companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been cut to Rs 4,350 per tonne from Rs 5,050 per tonne, the order dated February 15 said. Crude oil pumped out of the ground and from below the seabed is refined and converted into fuels like petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
The Indian government has implemented several measures to mitigate external risks, support the balance of payments, and maintain macroeconomic stability amidst the ongoing West Asia crisis, according to Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary.
After a three-month slowdown, India's oil imports (already landed) from Russia bounced back in the first 15 days of October to 1.8 million barrels per day.
Shares of Oil marketing companies (OMCs) extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday after crude oil prices plunged to six-month lows in the international markets, which boosted investor sentiments. Traders said the OMC stocks gained with crude oil prices hovering below $70 per barrel after OPEC-plus decision to increase output from April, a move which is expected to favour Indian refiners with added marketing margins on retail fuel.
Move could fetch the exchequer Rs 14,000 cr
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil already in transit to ease soaring global crude prices, making 140 million barrels available to the market.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
Indian stock markets recovered from early losses to close higher, driven by value buying in IT and banking shares and a rebound in the rupee.
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
Average price of the Indian basket for international crude rose by 42.4 per cent during 2005-06 as compared to the previous year, leading to a sharp increase in merchandise import payment during the year, says RBI.
Crude oil volumes on the MCX platform touched a record level of 10.19 million barrels on Wednesday because of increased participation from investors amid high volatility in global crude prices. Although, there was a sharp fall in crude oil prices on Wednesday, but volumes remained upbeat, experts said, adding that prices were below $130 per barrel.
'Oil is still well below its all-time highs, and the world is gradually running out of known reserves.'
Gold and silver prices experienced a significant drop in the national capital due to a global selloff driven by inflation concerns, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
For starters, the Iran situation is sure to have an impact on crude oil prices, as the world has little spare capacity.
Analysts predict a surge in gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The impact on domestic prices will depend on the conflict's duration, with geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data also playing a role.
The basket of crude oil India imports averaged $99 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest level since April 2, a petroleum ministry official said. It had averaged $96.52 a barrel on April 1 and crossed the $100 mark on April 7.
The Oil prices have surged and surpassed $85 per barrel after several oil producer countries announced surprise cuts in production, TASS Agency reported. According to the Russian News Agency, this is the first time since March 7 that the price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil surged. The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2023 delivery on London's ICE surpassed $85 per barrel.
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Saudi Arabia's steep cut in LPG benchmark prices has pushed India's household LPG underrecoveries to their lowest level in over two years, slashing oil companies' losses from Rs 200-250 per cylinder last year to about Rs 20-40 now.
The ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict has disrupted India's efforts to gain from a recent fall in crude oil prices. Since Hamas' invasion of southern Israel on October 7, petroleum has become costlier by around $5 per barrel, threatening to stoke prices and impact growth. Brent crude was trading at $89.8 per barrel on October 9 (9.15 pm IST), up over 4 per cent, thwarting India's anticipation of a period of declining oil prices - after the leading global petroleum benchmark declined by around 11 per cent last week.
US President Donald Trump has threatened to target Iran's civilian energy infrastructure, including power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 48.29 lakh crore since the West Asia war began on February 28, leading to a significant downturn in the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Thursday said it has halted the use of Russian crude at its export-only refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat, as the company moves to comply with European Union sanctions. Reliance is India's largest buyer of Russian oil, which it processes and turns into fuel, such as petrol and diesel, at its giant oil refining complex at Jamnagar.
The Indian government is considering additional relief packages for vulnerable sectors like MSMEs to mitigate the impact of the ongoing West Asia crisis on the economy and inflation.
India has condemned the escalating attacks on commercial shipping in West Asia, particularly after a Thai-flagged vessel en route to India's Kandla Port was targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks have disrupted global oil and gas supplies, impacting India's energy imports.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
India has taken up the issue of high oil prices with producer nations and OPEC, demanding affordable rates, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli told the Lok Sabha on Monday. Petrol and diesel prices have shot up to record highs across the country after relentless price increases since early May. Petrol is retailing above Rs 100 a litre in more than a dozen states.
Top losers in the Sensex pack included M&M, SBI, Yes Bank, Asian Paints, HDFC, Tata Steel and L&T, shedding up to 2.55 per cent. The broader NSE Nifty settled 79.80 points, or 0.72 per cent, down at 10,996.10.
At 5% customs duty, the govt will earn more than $3 bn
It also receives large investments from the Europe.
'So far our production is not affected. But every day the situation prolongs, it does bring risks in terms of shipments getting delayed.'
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